Premier League Outright Betting
by a special correspondent - written on 25.07.10
Since 1995, the Premier League has effectively been a three horse race. Whilst Liverpool may have sporadically challenged for the title, the last 15 Premier League trophies have gone to either Manchester United, Arsenal or Chelsea. however, if the betting is to be believed, there is a real chance of a new contender challenging the existing hierarchy in English football.
So, where will the title end up in 2011?
Chelsea are the worthy 6/4 favourites to retain the Premier League. They stormed to the title last season in some style – breaking the ‘goals scored’ record in the process – as well as capturing the club’s first Double by beating Portsmouth in the FA Cup Final.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side never really looked like denying Manchester United a record fourth consecutive title and they boast the strongest squad in the division. Yossi Benayoun has replaced Joe Cole, and the return of Michael Essien and John Obi Mikel from injury will boost an already strong midfield.
Defensive doubts remain, as both John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho had shaky moments last season and are both past their prime. Chelsea may also yet be searching for a new left back if Ashley Cole were to complete a big money move to Real Madrid. There are also question marks on whether understudy goalkeeper Hilaro is good enough with Petr Cech’s increasing injuries is a key question.
Still, with money to invest, the prospect of some of the club’s young stars being given more opportunities this season and an already impressive roster, I can’t see past the London club winning back to back championships.
Manchester United are the 13/8 second favourites to win their 12th title since the inception of the Premier League in 1992.
For anyone that watched United on a regular basis last season, the fact that the Red Devils remained in the hunt for the title for so long was nothing short of a miracle. United were mediocre for large parts of last season, lacking the attacking flair or defensive organisation that has characterised the Ferguson era. Injuries hit United hard at times last season, with Michael Carrick, Darren Fletcher and Ritchie de Laet famously forming a makeshift back three in a humiliating defeat to Fulham.
Rio Ferdinand and Owen Hargreaves’ injury problems continue and the likes of Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville are yet another year older. Michael Carrick’s form dipped worryingly at the end of last season, and Anderson has failed to live up to expectations after a big money move from Porto.
However, Ferguson has a raft of attacking options this time with a fit again Michael Owen and Federico Macheda challenging Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov for starting roles. £7m signing Javier Hernandez looked lively for Mexico in the World Cup, and the likes of Danny Welbeck and Mame Diouf offer alternate striking options.
Trusting the up and coming kids has worked for Ferguson in the past, and so expect to see the likes of Ben Amos, Chris Smalling, Tom Cleverley and Darron Gibson in the team this season. Will it be good enough, though?
For the first time in a decade, there is someone other than Arsenal and Liverpool as the third favourite for the title. Money talks in football these days, and Manchester City are trying to emulate Blackburn Rovers and Chelsea and hope their huge financial investment secures them a Premier League title. They are 5/1 to win the league.
There is no doubt that Manchester City’s first choice XI, on paper, is a match for any team in the land. A host of seasoned internationals can be called on, and the investment in David Silva, Yaya Toure and Aleksandar Kolorov has only increased the level of quality. Joleon Lescott will return from injury and the signing of Hamburg’s Jerome Boateng looks like a shrewd one.
And, of course, with over a month until the transfer window closes, there could be another £100m of talent heading to Eastlands. Mario Balotelli, James Milner, Fernando Torres and Dider Drogba are just four of the star names linked with City over recent weeks.
However, turning a squad full of international players into a happy, coherent camp is easier said than done. Integrating the likes of Robinho and Craig Bellamy proved tricky for Mark Hughes, and Roberto Mancini has already had one or two internal issues to deal with. Managing the egos of big name players who won’t play week in, week out could be Mancini’s biggest challenge.
With continued investment, it is almost certain that Manchester City will win the league at some point. Just not perhaps this season.
The battle for a Champions League spot is likely to be fiercer than ever this season with Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, Aston Villa and Everton coveting a top four slot.
Arsenal are the favourites to secure the spot, and Arsene Wenger’s side are 7/1 to win the title. They performed above expectations last season, but their defence remains their weak point and Wenger needs to break the bank to sign a world class goalkeeper and centre half. Liverpool have made a canny managerial appointment in Roy Hodgson, but with little money to spend and continued back room unrest, the Reds’ time amongst the elite might be over for a few seasons. They are 12/1 to lift the title – the longest odds for a few seasons.
I expect Spurs to have a decent time of it in the Champions League, but I think they will have to enjoy themselves this time around as I don’t think they can match last season’s performance. Everton will be competitive but will have to settle for a Europa League place, whereas Aston Villa’s weakened squad will do well to emulate recent finishes.
Football Betting
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